The recent explosion of news linked to renewable hydrogen, new projects, new technological paths, investments, MOUs, etc. already looks like a bubble before the real bubble comes by! In the Northeastern State of Ceará, Brazil, there are dozens of MOUs signed between several big international groups and the state government. Everybody’s already dreaming about exporting millions of tonnes of the ultra-light gas to Europe, the US and Asia, through the Panama Canal. As one Hydrogen Council director said a few months ago, there are more than US$ 320 billion in prospective projects, but very few FIDs. Most recently, while all this happen, new contradictory moves emerge every day. In my personal view, since hydrogen is an ultra-complex molecule to deal with, its final use will tend to happen close to where it is produced (< 500 km), much probably from an electrolyzer powered by solar or wind electricity. I think ammonia and ethanol will probably be used not as a medium to transport hydrogen, but as a fuel for maritime shipping and a few thermal processes. Burning hydrogen is probably inefficient, and for home heating out of question, but it may find some niches in jet engines for short and medium range flights and eventually in agricultural machines. But some surprising news are already emerging from tests. BHP has now joined Rio Tinto and Fortescue in preferring battery giant mining trucks over hydrogen fuel cell trucks simply because they are more efficient and a lot less expensive to operate. The same applies to local trains (< 100 km). Last year Germany’s LNVG started the world’s first hydrogen train service with the launch of fuel cell units on the line between Cuxhaven and Buxtehude in the North of Germany, run by EVB. But now LNVG has decided to halt further investments in hydrogen trains and will instead order 102 new battery powered ones plus 27 catenary versions. There are problems also with H2 recharging operations that frequently breaks down, bringing headaches for hydrogen operators. This is not necessarily the end of the hydrogen trains, but since the cost to buy and operate them is a lot higher than battery ones, it is a short to medium term blow to hydrogen technology. And the last territory where the battery will eventually displace hydrogen and fuel cell belongs to HDV, trucks in the 44 tonnes class that is the backbone of most European and American road freight. Could battery combined with stretches of highways served by catenary systems that will allow recharging on the go finally displace both diesel and hydrogen with a single punch? Time will tell, and I leave you with an article by Professor David Cebon, director of the Centre for Sustainable Road Freight at the University of Cambridge.
